Photo courtesy mms.gov

September is historically the most active part of the hurricane season (which spans the months of June through November), and this September has been no exception.

Hurricane Gustav, which is now causing rain in the American mid-West, made landfall as a Category 1 storm on Sunday, August 31, southeast of Houma, LA.

In the last week of August, weather conditions had spurred offshore oil and gas operators to evacuate platforms and rigs in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The Minerals Management Service (MMS) activated its Continuity of Operations Plan team to monitor operator activities in the Gulf and has stated that the team will be active until operations return to normal.

Based on data from offshore operator reports submitted as of 11:30 a.m. CST on September 3, personnel had been evacuated from 599 production platforms (equivalent to 83.5 % of the 717 manned platforms in the GoM) along with workers from 91 rigs.

The MMS reported on September 1 that 100% of the oil production in the Gulf (estimated at 1.3 MMb/d) had been shut in along with 95.4% of the GoM’s natural gas production (approximately 7.4 bcf/d). By Wednesday, September 3, those numbers had dropped slightly. As of Wednesday, 95.8 % of the oil was shut in along with 91.6% of the area’s natural gas.

For the record, these figures are not absolute. Production percentages provided by the MMS are calculated using information from daily reports submitted by offshore operators. Shut-in production information included in MMS reports is based on what the operator expected to produce that day, which means shut-in production figures are estimates.

With Gustav out of the way, hopes were high that the GoM would go back to business as usual, but tropical storms Hanna and Ike are hot on Gustav’s heels.

As of 4:30 PM on Wednesday, Hanna was over the southern Bahamas with wind speeds holding steady at 60 mph. According to Tim Ballisty, meteorologist for The Weather Channel, the storm was growing in size at that point and was predicted to reintensify through Thursday, September 4. Ballisty says that by Friday afternoon, Hanna will be close to the southeastern coast of the US. The Weather Channel and Weather.com’s projected path predicts Hanna will make landfall close to the South Carolina/North Carolina border.

Reports early Thursday morning indicate that Ike is now a Category 3 or 4 hurricane and continues to strengthen. Wayne Verno, lead meteorologist at The Weather Channel, predicts Hurricane Ike will trek west-northwest. In a Web site report, Verno said the storm will “wobble in a general westward direction over the next several days” and that Ike will probably remain a Category 4 or Category 3 storm as it moves west.

Just behind Ike is Tropical Storm Josephine in the far eastern Atlantic. Josephine is about 305 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and as of Wednesday, was producing 60 mph winds.

Josephine’s predicted path is west from the Cape Verde Islands, gradually turning west-northwest over the east-central Atlantic.

“The tropics overall remain active,” Verno says.

So from the looks of things, it is possible that the GoM will not see business as usual for some time. While meteorologists track the storms and make predictions about their paths and their potential for destruction in the Gulf, the rest of us will watch and wait.